Scoreboard

3 gameweeks scored: GW1, GW2, GW3 · built 2026-09-11 07:07 UTC · Frootbrall

How the deadline projection did against what FPL then recorded, one finished gameweek at a time: the model on its full scored population, then FPL's own ep_next and a last-5 average, each beside the model on the same players. Bias is mean projected minus realized, so positive is over-projection. Rebuilt daily; lags a newly scored gameweek by one rebuild.

Every scored gameweek — RMSE, MAE and bias on the full scored population, the played subset beside it (under-projection shows there first), then each baseline beside the model on the same players. The Season row is n-weighted over the gameweeks pooled on this page (RMSE from the pooled MSE), derived here, not a separately scored population; a baseline pools only the gameweeks that carry it.
Gameweek	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Played n	Played RMSE	Played bias	ep_next n	Model RMSE	ep_next RMSE	last-5 n	Model RMSE	last-5 RMSE	Labels
GW1	599	2.66	1.44	-0.52	307	3.60	-1.46	599	2.66	2.62	—	—	—	pre-collapse-fix-code
GW2	616	2.44	1.30	-0.42	308	3.35	-1.52	616	2.44	2.36	610	2.45	2.96
GW3	652	2.14	1.15	-0.39	307	3.02	-1.44	652	2.14	2.40	626	2.15	2.45
Season	1867	2.42	1.29	-0.44	922	3.33	-1.47	1867	2.42	2.46	1236	2.31	2.71	pre-collapse-fix-code

Gameweek 3

scored 2026-09-10 08:46 UTC · population: projected 652 · realized 652 · scored 652

Model — full scored population (n=652)
Population	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
Overall	652	2.14	1.15	-0.39	1.01	1.40
Played	307	3.02	1.84	-1.44	1.53	2.97

By position — full scored population
Position	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
GK	71	1.83	1.02	-0.17	0.85	1.01
DEF	214	2.53	1.45	-0.71	1.03	1.74
MID	289	1.99	1.04	-0.32	1.01	1.33
FWD	78	1.76	0.87	+0.02	1.11	1.09

By return category — full scored population
Category	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
zero	345	0.74	0.54	+0.54	0.54	0.00
blank	188	0.67	0.49	+0.16	1.46	1.30
ticker	54	1.87	1.76	-1.76	1.53	3.30
hauler	65	6.24	5.79	-5.79	1.73	7.52

Reliability curve — projected points binned, full scored population
Projected	n	Mean projected	Mean realized	Bias
0–0.5	152	0.01	0.05	-0.04
0.5–1	183	0.84	0.48	+0.36
1–1.5	136	1.21	1.49	-0.27
1.5–2	134	1.73	3.13	-1.40
2–3	46	2.22	4.20	-1.97
3–4	1	3.03	2.00	+1.03
4–6	0	—	—	—
6+	0	—	—	—

Band coverage — snapshot carries no floor/ceiling (projection schema 2.0)

vs ep_next — the 652 scored players with an ep_next figure (n=652); model figures on the same players
Population	n	Model RMSE	ep_next RMSE	Model MAE	ep_next MAE	Model bias	ep_next bias
Overall	652	2.14	2.40	1.15	1.29	-0.39	+0.06
Played	307	3.02	3.42	1.84	2.43	-1.44	-0.19
GK	71	1.83	1.99	1.02	0.88	-0.17	-0.08
DEF	214	2.53	2.80	1.45	1.60	-0.71	-0.24
MID	289	1.99	2.29	1.04	1.25	-0.32	+0.27
FWD	78	1.76	1.91	0.87	0.96	+0.02	+0.21
zero	345	0.74	0.68	0.54	0.28	+0.54	+0.28
blank	188	0.67	2.65	0.49	1.70	+0.16	+1.22
ticker	54	1.87	2.66	1.76	2.19	-1.76	-0.12
hauler	65	6.24	5.39	5.79	4.71	-5.79	-4.34

vs last-5 — the 626 scored players with a prior gameweek (n=626), window GW1, GW2; model figures on the same players
Population	n	Model RMSE	last-5 RMSE	Model MAE	last-5 MAE	Model bias	last-5 bias
Overall	626	2.15	2.45	1.15	1.31	-0.41	+0.06
Played	296	3.03	3.45	1.86	2.45	-1.45	-0.19
GK	70	1.84	1.98	1.02	0.84	-0.18	-0.14
DEF	207	2.50	2.81	1.42	1.59	-0.69	-0.21
MID	276	2.02	2.37	1.06	1.28	-0.35	+0.25
FWD	73	1.80	2.00	0.88	1.05	-0.04	+0.25
zero	330	0.73	0.83	0.52	0.28	+0.52	+0.28
blank	179	0.68	2.71	0.51	1.73	+0.17	+1.23
ticker	54	1.87	2.67	1.76	2.20	-1.76	-0.13
hauler	63	6.24	5.39	5.78	4.68	-5.78	-4.30

Provenance
Deadline snapshot	gw03.json.gz · source backfill · captured 2026-09-04 10:01 UTC
Deadline	2026-09-04 17:30 UTC
Built for	GW3
Projection schema	2.0
Data commit	1234920
Code commit	—
Bootstrap	2026-09-04T162812Z.json.gz · captured 2026-09-04 16:28 UTC
Live payload	fetched 2026-09-10 07:13 UTC · finished yes · data checked yes
Prior live gameweeks	GW1, GW2
Artifact schema	1.0 · rules 2026/27

Gameweek 2

scored 2026-09-10 08:46 UTC · population: projected 616 · realized 620 · scored 616

Model — full scored population (n=616)
Population	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
Overall	616	2.44	1.30	-0.42	1.02	1.44
Played	308	3.35	1.92	-1.52	1.36	2.88

By position — full scored population
Position	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
GK	68	1.72	1.08	+0.08	0.90	0.82
DEF	205	2.27	1.29	-0.36	1.02	1.39
MID	270	2.73	1.35	-0.60	1.02	1.62
FWD	73	2.38	1.35	-0.34	1.15	1.49

By return category — full scored population
Category	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
zero	308	0.86	0.68	+0.68	0.68	0.00
blank	202	0.67	0.50	+0.11	1.30	1.19
ticker	43	2.09	2.03	-2.03	1.44	3.47
hauler	63	7.09	6.38	-6.38	1.52	7.90

Reliability curve — projected points binned, full scored population
Projected	n	Mean projected	Mean realized	Bias
0–0.5	109	0.01	0.01	+0.00
0.5–1	138	0.89	0.38	+0.51
1–1.5	254	1.24	1.74	-0.51
1.5–2	109	1.65	3.14	-1.49
2–3	6	2.10	8.17	-6.07
3–4	0	—	—	—
4–6	0	—	—	—
6+	0	—	—	—

Band coverage — snapshot carries no floor/ceiling (projection schema 2.0)

vs ep_next — the 616 scored players with an ep_next figure (n=616); model figures on the same players
Population	n	Model RMSE	ep_next RMSE	Model MAE	ep_next MAE	Model bias	ep_next bias
Overall	616	2.44	2.36	1.30	1.46	-0.42	+0.06
Played	308	3.35	3.06	1.92	1.90	-1.52	-0.91
GK	68	1.72	1.93	1.08	1.44	+0.08	+0.83
DEF	205	2.27	2.27	1.29	1.51	-0.36	+0.11
MID	270	2.73	2.54	1.35	1.45	-0.60	-0.13
FWD	73	2.38	2.26	1.35	1.37	-0.34	-0.10
zero	308	0.86	1.33	0.68	1.02	+0.68	+1.02
blank	202	0.67	1.05	0.50	0.83	+0.11	+0.69
ticker	43	2.09	1.51	2.03	1.40	-2.03	-1.39
hauler	63	7.09	6.38	6.38	5.69	-6.38	-5.69

vs last-5 — the 610 scored players with a prior gameweek (n=610), window GW1; model figures on the same players
Population	n	Model RMSE	last-5 RMSE	Model MAE	last-5 MAE	Model bias	last-5 bias
Overall	610	2.45	2.96	1.30	1.45	-0.43	+0.10
Played	306	3.36	3.99	1.93	2.58	-1.52	-0.09
GK	67	1.73	1.76	1.08	0.76	+0.06	+0.19
DEF	202	2.28	3.10	1.30	1.58	-0.38	+0.28
MID	268	2.74	3.12	1.35	1.49	-0.61	+0.03
FWD	73	2.38	2.79	1.35	1.58	-0.34	-0.21
zero	304	0.86	1.24	0.68	0.32	+0.68	+0.30
blank	200	0.67	3.12	0.51	1.78	+0.11	+0.94
ticker	43	2.09	3.52	2.03	2.74	-2.03	+0.28
hauler	63	7.09	6.15	6.38	4.98	-6.38	-3.62

Provenance
Deadline snapshot	gw02.json.gz · source backfill · captured 2026-08-27 16:52 UTC
Deadline	2026-08-28 17:30 UTC
Built for	GW2
Projection schema	2.0
Data commit	22c9d55
Code commit	—
Bootstrap	2026-08-28T152922Z.json.gz · captured 2026-08-28 15:29 UTC
Live payload	fetched 2026-09-10 07:13 UTC · finished yes · data checked yes
Prior live gameweeks	GW1
Artifact schema	1.0 · rules 2026/27

Gameweek 1 pre-collapse-fix-code

scored 2026-09-10 08:46 UTC · population: projected 599 · realized 600 · scored 599

Model — full scored population (n=599)
Population	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
Overall	599	2.66	1.44	-0.52	1.06	1.58
Played	307	3.60	2.35	-1.46	1.62	3.08

By position — full scored population
Position	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
GK	67	1.94	0.90	-0.17	0.86	1.03
DEF	198	3.00	1.64	-0.61	1.11	1.72
MID	262	2.64	1.45	-0.62	1.08	1.69
FWD	72	2.29	1.32	-0.22	1.08	1.29

By return category — full scored population
Category	n	RMSE	MAE	Bias	Mean projected	Mean realized
zero	292	0.93	0.48	+0.48	0.48	0.00
blank	199	1.30	1.06	+0.27	1.48	1.21
ticker	35	2.05	1.72	-1.52	1.70	3.23
hauler	73	6.93	6.16	-6.16	1.95	8.11

Reliability curve — projected points binned, full scored population
Projected	n	Mean projected	Mean realized	Bias
0–0.5	313	0.13	0.76	-0.63
0.5–1	42	0.74	1.38	-0.64
1–1.5	56	1.23	1.73	-0.50
1.5–2	49	1.77	2.35	-0.58
2–3	82	2.53	2.52	+0.01
3–4	48	3.35	4.21	-0.85
4–6	9	4.45	3.11	+1.34
6+	0	—	—	—

Band coverage — snapshot carries no floor/ceiling (projection schema 2.0)

vs ep_next — the 599 scored players with an ep_next figure (n=599); model figures on the same players
Population	n	Model RMSE	ep_next RMSE	Model MAE	ep_next MAE	Model bias	ep_next bias
Overall	599	2.66	2.62	1.44	1.60	-0.52	-0.05
Played	307	3.60	3.41	2.35	2.12	-1.46	-1.12
GK	67	1.94	2.09	0.90	1.51	-0.17	+0.64
DEF	198	3.00	2.95	1.64	1.79	-0.61	-0.21
MID	262	2.64	2.61	1.45	1.55	-0.62	-0.17
FWD	72	2.29	2.07	1.32	1.34	-0.22	+0.14
zero	292	0.93	1.36	0.48	1.06	+0.48	+1.06
blank	199	1.30	1.05	1.06	0.83	+0.27	+0.71
ticker	35	2.05	1.41	1.72	1.27	-1.52	-1.25
hauler	73	6.93	6.71	6.16	6.02	-6.16	-6.02

vs last-5 — no prior gameweek — last-5 is undefined at GW1

Provenance
Deadline snapshot	gw01.json.gz · source backfill · captured 2026-08-21 04:44 UTC
Deadline	2026-08-21 17:30 UTC
Built for	GW1
Projection schema	2.0
Data commit	2edf6ac
Code commit	—
Bootstrap	2026-08-21T155236Z.json.gz · captured 2026-08-21 15:52 UTC
Live payload	fetched 2026-09-10 07:13 UTC · finished yes · data checked yes
Prior live gameweeks	—
Artifact schema	1.0 · rules 2026/27